August 10, 2005

T3/Wed 8/10 4:30PM: Zocalo: Can Prediction Markets be Manipulated?


zLab intern Ryan Oprea will be wrapping up his visit this week with a talk on his research into market manipulation and a discussion of how Zocalo supports his investigations at George Mason University:

“Futures markets are increasingly being used by organizations as a means of consolidating and aggregating dispersed information. However there are worries that, in certain contexts, these “prediction markets” might be manipulated by traders willing to bet against their information in order to control the beliefs of decision makers. In this presentation I will describe the experimental research program on manipulation in prediction markets my coauthors and I have been conducting at the Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science at George Mason University. I will put special focus on how we will be utilizing the Zocalo software in order to implement the next, and most important, leg of this research.”