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We released a new version of Zocalo in December. (There have already been about 50 downloads, even without an announcement.) It is available on SourceForge. It includes some new configurable features for prediction market experiments: the main one is that experiments can be run in which traders keep their earnings across rounds within a session. […]
Search The main user task is locating existing microformatted data found on the public Web. This will eventually require ranking multiple results to find the most relevant. It may also require a more-specific query language for working with particular fields (“Advanced Search”). A secondary task is reusing this information once found. Query Interface A one-line […]
Smarket is an interesting new market that lets you bet on whether the rank of books and other products on Amazon will go up or down. This is another addition to a type of market I don’t think there’s a good theory for yet; markets with open-ended pricing.
[This post was accidently embargoed due to a bug in our handling of WordPress drafts. It was sent out on the feed in October, but never appeared on the blog page.] David Porter of the Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science at George Mason University wrote a very complimentary note to Allan Schiffman, CommerceNet’s Director. Professor […]
[This post was accidently embargoed due to a bug in our handling of WordPress drafts. It was sent out on the feed in October, but never appeared on the blog page.] Chris Masse provided a pointer to a consent order between the CFTC and TradeSports (a.k.a. TEN, the Trade Exchange Network). The order is interesting […]
This article is the first of a series describing the variety of prediction market institutions in use. I’ll start with the simplest form of prediction markets: a double auction (buyers bidding prices up, sellers bidding down) for a simple asset that represents the outcome of interest. The asset will pay $1 if some outcome comes […]
This afternoon, PubSub and Broadband Mechanics are announcing a “structured blogging initiative” at the Syndicate conference. The press release even includes a quote in support from us here at CommerceNet: CommerceNet believes strongly in the vision of bootstrapping a more intelligent Web by embedding semi-structured information with easy-to-author techniques like microformats. Through our own research […]
Salon has a complimentary (but not free) article on InTrade’s Bird Flu markets, but they seem to overbill the minor points and underplay the important questions and effects. They’re interested in whether it’s immoral to bet on events that will turn out to be a tragedy for someone. “Is this market offering the chance to […]
I took pictures at the Prediction Market summit a week ago. I managed to capture all the speakers other than myself; I inexplicably neglected to get a picture of John Maloney, who organized and ran the meeting. I also took snapshots of the audience. Rohit also took pictures. I will be speaking at the next […]
The economist has a short article on prediction markets, suggesting that they should be used inside companies a lot more, and that a prime area where they have been underutilised is in predicting technology trends. They quote or cite most of the big names in the field. The main problem with trying to use Prediction […]