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There are two basic ways of handling incoming orders: keeping standing orders in a
book against which market orders can be entered, or having a market
maker that accepts orders at its current price and adjusts the price after each
order. It’s also possible to combine the two, though that hasn’t been done in very
many of the existing markets.
A new release of Zocalo is available (Here’s a patched release) on SourceForge. Zocalo now supports long-lived Prediction Markets. The previous releases had general support for prediction market trading, but the original packaging was focused on enabling lab experiments for economists. That version has been in use at George Mason since last fall, and they […]
NewsFutures has (always had) an interesting feature in its user interface that I want to highlight. I want to explain the difference so I can rely on it in my explanation of other market formats. Whenever they create a new (binary) claim, they write a description of each outcome phrased in positive terms. When they […]
Tom Bell’s paper on how to interpret, skirt or redefine the laws to ensure that real money prediction markets are clearly legal to operate covers a lot of ground, and is a substantial addition to his previous paper on the subject. This paper, though I can’t comment on whether the legal arguments will hold up, […]
We showed off a re-skinned version of our Ångströ project at eTech in San Diego that I hope makes a bit more sense as microsearch… you know, for microformats. :) We pointed at a live instance at http://tpd.angstro.net:19988/ — go search, grab the miffy bookmarkley, and start adding microformats to our big shared pile of […]
Google Alerted me to a press release from new startup Inkling, which aims to start up another marketplace for predictions. They are just getting started, but intend to offer a variety of claims, and allow the users to suggest new questions. So far, they have sports, entertainment, and technology (Apple rumors and web traffic comparisons). […]
Chris Masse posted another thorough review of the state of the
Prediction Markets field in the guise of an annual awards list.
Donald Luskin noticed a stock market anomaly, and when he looked for
explanations, he found a possibility on TradeSports.
Koleman Strumpf presented a very interesting paper at the Prediction Market Summit last Friday, so I finally read his article on Manipulating Political Stock Market. It bears on the experiment I am working on with some folks at GMU, since both deal with Manipulating markets. Koleman’s paper looks at three examples, two studies of naturally […]
HedgeStreet issued a press release last week touting a new interface and improved platform. The UI is somewhat simpler, but I can’t tell that it is a big improvement. They mention two changes: Rather than paired yes and no contracts on each question, they now have a single instrument for any claim that you can […]