November 18, 2005

Great Lineup for Prediction Market Summit

Prediction Markets By: ams

The Prediction
Markets summit
that will be held in San Francisco on December 2nd
is shaping up to be quite an event. There will be speakers from
Google, HP, NewsFutures, Trade Exchange Network, HedgeStreet,
Stanford, Microsoft, and Yahoo. I’ll start things off by telling what
I’ve been able to do with Zocalo so far, and then challenge the other
attendees on a few points of Prediction Market design. Bernardo
Huberman of HP will give the keynote. Google and Microsoft will talk
about their experiences with markets inside the corporation.
Representatives of NewsFutures, InTrade, HedgeStreet, and Yahoo will
talk about how they are faring in the market. Eric Zitzewitz of
Stanford will present a
paper
responding to
Manski’s
charge that prices in prediction markets don’t reflect
probabilities.

The day will end with a panel discusssion, which I will facilitate.
I’ll ask about Tom Bell’s

draft legislation
, about the prospects for
increasing liquidity on HedgeStreet, and I’ll try to get InTrade to
say what they plan for their proposed

US subsidiary
if they haven’t talked about that earlier in the day.

This will be the first public opportunity that I’m aware of to see
presentations on

Google’s markets
, HedgeStreet, or InTrade. There is
still space available. If you are at all interested in

Prediction
Markets
, you should register now.

The whole event is billed as having a conversational, interactive
style, so if you want to find out more about these ventures, this will
be the place. Future events in the series are planned for the east
coast, Europe, and Asia, but they’ll have very different speaker
line-ups.

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