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The Internet Gambling Act (HR4411) that passed the House earlier this month is a curious compromise. There’s been a lot of discussion elsewhere about the fact that this bill won’t stop gambling on the Internet, and doesn’t even seem intended to try; I’ll leave that issue alone. The only point I wanted to make is […]
Previous articles have described a few simple formats of prediction market: simple double auctions, markets with open-ended prices, the symmetry of complementary purchases, and how to integrate an order book with an automated market maker. In this article, I describe the mechanics of multi-outcome markets, both as most markets currently implement them, and as I […]
Name Creator Code Version Paper Description Zocalo Chris Hibbert open source latest release 2006/7/14 CommerceNet Tech Report: The Zocalo White Paper A java toolkit for prediction markets. Includes an general purpose prediction market configuration as well as a configuration intended for use in laboratory economics experiments. Free Market Jesse Gillespie open source link is broken […]
MIT’s Center for Coordination Science has recast itself as the Center for Collective Intelligence. Tom Malone (who spoke at the New York Prediction Market Summit), and Tomaso Poggio (who co-authored Securities Trading of Concepts) are two of the principals. The new center’s framing question is How can people and computers be connected so that—collectively—they act […]
In response to a couple of requests for installation help, I spent most of the week figuring out how to install under Windows, and how to generate appropriate zip files. I have uploaded a new release of the Zocalo Prediction Market Software to SourceForge. There are now 5 different files you can choose from in […]
I released a major new version of Zocalo on SourceForge yesterday. This release is the one I’ve been targeting as good enough for people to test out with interested groups. The user accounts now have password security, and only administrators can create new accounts and set up claims. (Later, I’ll make it possible to configure […]
Eliezor Yudkowsky has written a good review on individual biases for a volume assessing the possibility of global catastrophic risks from AI, Nanotech, Biotech, etc. Yudkowsky’s particular concern is AI, and the likelihood that an AI will take over the world soon after its ascendance if it’s not carefully designed to care about humanity’s wishes. […]
CommerceNet has been very generous in funding my work on Zocalo for more than a year. From the beginning, it was proposed as an appointment that would last for a year or two, as part of CommerceNet’s program to bring a variety of people and projects into the labs, both to expose the particular projects […]
I’m joining the roster at the Chicago Prediction Market summit. I’ll try to explain how Zocalo can improve the prospects for adoption of Prediction Markets in business by making the technology more accessible, and by doing a better job of publicizing results so more companies may be convinced that this is valuable technology. I’ll try […]
It’s a Friday afternoon, and I’d like to clean up my desktop with a list o’ links I’ve found interesting over the past few weeks: The Personal Bee aggregator for VC & Startup news. Feels a bit like some of the concepts behind Newroo/Fox. Here are several stories I got to from there: the MIT/Lemelson […]